By Abdi Ali
Published January 5, 2019
As 2019 begins, world affairs analysts say United States of America and the People’s Republic of China are set to bring their rivalry to Africa.
Control Risks, a specialist global risk consultancy, in its RiskMap 2019, a publication forecasting political and security risk for business leaders and policymakers across the world, says that while USA multiplies warnings about the perils of Chinese debt-fuelled spending for economic stability in Africa, China shall continue to broaden its engagement across the mother continent, with particular focus on Eastern Africa.
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“So far, the US-China rivalry that dominated global headlines in 2018 has played out less visibly in Africa than on other continents,” says Daniel Heal, Control Risks’s Senior Partner for East Africa. “Support for China or the US has not emerged as a defining issue in African politics, with most countries keen to pursue closer ties and seek financing from both sides rather than falling neatly in one camp. In 2019 we might see this changing.”
Nairobi (Kenya)-based Heal says that “2019 will show revived US interest in development finance and lending for infrastructure projects on the continent and a more concerted US commercial strategy towards Africa is likely to take shape. The increased rivalry will therefore open up additional investment opportunities but will also present African countries with increasingly starker foreign policy and commercial choices.”
While still the largest investor on the continent, Control Risks says, USA has seen its engagement on the continent become more narrowly focused on security matters under the Donald J Trump Administration in contrast to China which has made formidable inroads in sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade.
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Control Risks notes that US-China trade confrontation will define global geopolitics in 2019, presenting a new level of risk for international business in 2019.
The consultancy also predict that globalised companies risk becoming nationless nomads as formal and informal barriers rise with advancing nationalist politics across the world.
“Frictionless trade is beginning to rub, supply chains are starting to drag. Business leaders must recalibrate and adapt to this new reality, or global players will end up being played by a world in uncertain transition,” Control Risks warns.
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